Date: 2008-02-10 05:29 pm (UTC)
I do have one reservation about the caucus vs. primary thing, and it's one of the lines of speculation on why pollsters got it grossly wrong in New Hampshire.

Pollsters only get results from people willing to take the time to answer a poll and trust that Big Media won't misrepresent the results. That population segment skews toward educated middle and upper-middle, open-minded, people who pay a lot of attention and think about the issues.

There's a lot of overlap in that description with likely caucus-goers. There's not much overlap with working-class racists.

Clinton's biggest win by demographic category in New Hampshire came from lower-class, less-educated voters. People who, arguably, could take 10 minutes first thing in the morning to go vote but couldn't be arsed to caucus. People who, arguably, are likely to tell media pollsters to go to hell.
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